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REPEAT: MNI:RBA Lowe - Data Pretty Positive, Next Rate Move Up

MNI (London)
Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 11:30 GMT Sep 4/07:30 EST Sep 4
--Lowe Reiterated Guidance That Next Move Likely Up, Not Down
By Sophia Rodrigues
     SYDNEY (MNI) - The Reserve Bank of Australia's next cash rate move will be
up, Governor Philip Lowe said Tuesday, reiterating the central bank's guidance
as he pointed to healthy growth supported by strong global economic expansion.
     But the RBA is monitoring international risks including a possible
escalation of trade disputes as well as keeping an eye on Australia's weakening
housing market, he told an RBA board dinner in Perth following a decision
earlier Tuesday to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.5% for the 23rd
consecutive month.
     Lowe called recent economic data "pretty positive", with GDP growing 3.1%
over the past year, inflation around 2% and unemployment at 5.3%.
     --UP, NOT DOWN
     As further progress is made towards full employment and inflation returns
to around the midpoint of the target range, "you could expect the next move in
interest rates to be up, not down," Lowe said.
     The economy has been buoyed by solid growth in the global economy,
including in China, despite some signs of slowing.
     A depreciation in the Australian dollar has been a result of broad
appreciation by the U.S. currency and, if sustained, could support both
inflation and growth, Lowe said.
     --TRADE ISSUES
     Turning to possible headwinds, Lowe pointed to a potential upsurge in
protectionism, a surprise material jump in U.S. inflation which could hurt
financial markets and the real economy, and to the danger of stress in emerging
market economies like Turkey, Brazil and Argentina, with implications for the
global financial system.
     The RBA is also closely monitoring Australia's housing market and trends in
housing finance, whilst paying close attention to the outlook for wages growth
and inflation, Lowe said.
     The Governor noted the recent increase in mortgage rates by some banks, but
added that a "much less remarked upon fact is that the average mortgage rate
paid in Australia has fallen since August last year, as lenders have increased
their discounts."
     He said the fall in housing prices is a normal part of the cycle as
investors are no longer finding it so attractive to invest in residential
property.
     Lowe made some closing remarks on Western Australia, whose economy has been
hit by the slowing of the mining boom, saying that for the first time in a
number of years the RBA is hearing from liaison reports that it is difficult for
firms to find workers with the right skills, including project engineers and
related occupations.
--MNI Sydney Bureau; tel: +61 2-9716-5467; email: sophia.rodrigues@marketnews.com
--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 | les.commons@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 | les.commons@marketnews.com
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