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Retail Sales For March/advance April – 0830ET

CANADA
  • Retail sales offer a steer on latest growth developments as a useful filler before Q1 GDP on May 31, one of the last main releases before the Jun 7 BoC decision for which ~1/3 of a 25bp hike is currently priced.
  • Consensus puts March nominal sales at -1.4% M/M per last month’s advance, but that was based on an exceptionally low response rate of just 28.4% so is likely more prone to revisions than normal.
  • Some of this weakness is seen from autos, with sales ex autos seen -0.8% M/M after -0.7%, whilst we also watch volumes after -0.7% in Feb and +1.7% in Jan.
  • As for the April flash, CIBC warn that “a cold start to the spring, combined with power outages in Quebec, may have also limited any rebound in sales activity”.

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