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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Robert F. Kennedy’s partial withdrawal from the presidential race is unlikely to significantly impact the result of the presidential election, according to analysis by Nate Silver.
- Kennedy suspended his campaign on Friday, endorsed Trump, and pledged to remove his name from the ballot in battleground states where his presence could be a spoiler. He will remain on the ballot in various other states.
- Nate Silver notes: “There are a couple of essential things to note here. First, yes, Trump has gained slightly more than Harris from the change, although it’s pretty minor, a net gain of 0.3 percentage points.
- “And second, we’re seeing the beginnings of a convention bounce for Harris. Even with the Kennedy change, she’s now ahead by 4.0 points in the national polling average versus 2.3 points when the DNC started. Our best guess is that her lead will increase further, especially given that almost none of the polling was done after her strong acceptance speech on Thursday.”
Figure 1: Presidential Election Winner, % Implied Probability
Source: Nate Silver/Silver Bulletin
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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