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RFK Unlikely To Play Spoiler In Presidential Election, YouGov

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A new survey from YouGov has found that independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is unlikely to play spoiler at the presidential election in November as his likely voters are evenly split between 2020 Biden and Trump voters.

  • YouGov: "Among registered voters, 44% of RFK Jr.'s support comes from those who voted for Biden in 2020, while 37% comes from those who voted for Trump, according to the last two weeks of the Economist-YouGov Poll."
  • YouGov concludes: "Given the low level of Kennedy's overall support and the nearly equal portion of supporters he appears to draw from both major-party candidates, Kennedy's impact in the race looks unlikely to be as a spoiler."

Figure 1: 2024 Voting Intention and 2020 Voting Record

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A new survey from YouGov has found that independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is unlikely to play spoiler at the presidential election in November as his likely voters are evenly split between 2020 Biden and Trump voters.

  • YouGov: "Among registered voters, 44% of RFK Jr.'s support comes from those who voted for Biden in 2020, while 37% comes from those who voted for Trump, according to the last two weeks of the Economist-YouGov Poll."
  • YouGov concludes: "Given the low level of Kennedy's overall support and the nearly equal portion of supporters he appears to draw from both major-party candidates, Kennedy's impact in the race looks unlikely to be as a spoiler."

Figure 1: 2024 Voting Intention and 2020 Voting Record

Keep reading...Show less