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Free AccessRFK Unlikely To Play Spoiler In Presidential Election, YouGov
A new survey from YouGov has found that independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is unlikely to play spoiler at the presidential election in November as his likely voters are evenly split between 2020 Biden and Trump voters.
- YouGov: "Among registered voters, 44% of RFK Jr.'s support comes from those who voted for Biden in 2020, while 37% comes from those who voted for Trump, according to the last two weeks of the Economist-YouGov Poll."
- YouGov concludes: "Given the low level of Kennedy's overall support and the nearly equal portion of supporters he appears to draw from both major-party candidates, Kennedy's impact in the race looks unlikely to be as a spoiler."
Figure 1: 2024 Voting Intention and 2020 Voting Record
Source: YouGov
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.