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RIKSBANK: Scenario Analysis Of Government Bond Holdings (2/2)

RIKSBANK
Central Bank NewsCEEMEABullet RiksbankSwedenGlobalFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange BulletsRegionMarkets

Coming into the September Riksbank meeting, we had only seen two analyst forecasts for the level of Government bond holdings in the long-term: Swedbank at SEK15bln and JP Morgan at SEK20bln. 

  • In the chart below, we show the trajectory of the Riksbank’s Government bond holdings (nominal and linkers) under different scenarios for active sales:
  • Halting active sales in January 2025 would see Government bond holdings reach SEK91bln at the end of 2027.
  • Stopping sales in January 2026 would instead imply a SEK41bln stock of holdings at the end of 2027, but this figure falls to SEK13bln if active sales continued through June 2026.
  • Of course, the Riksbank could also slow down the pace of active sales to reach its eventual long-term preferred level.

 

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Coming into the September Riksbank meeting, we had only seen two analyst forecasts for the level of Government bond holdings in the long-term: Swedbank at SEK15bln and JP Morgan at SEK20bln. 

  • In the chart below, we show the trajectory of the Riksbank’s Government bond holdings (nominal and linkers) under different scenarios for active sales:
  • Halting active sales in January 2025 would see Government bond holdings reach SEK91bln at the end of 2027.
  • Stopping sales in January 2026 would instead imply a SEK41bln stock of holdings at the end of 2027, but this figure falls to SEK13bln if active sales continued through June 2026.
  • Of course, the Riksbank could also slow down the pace of active sales to reach its eventual long-term preferred level.