Free Trial

RUB Rallies as Risk Flips On Post-FOMC, Brent Eyes $75/bbl

RUSSIA
  • USD/RUB trades -0.32% lower this morning on the back of selling pressure on the BBDXY and firmer oil markets.
  • The cross fell sharply after the FOMC meeting, with price action moving back below the 200dma this morning. As expected, the Fed doubled its taper speed, but signalled 3 hikes and raised its inflation end-222 forecast to 2.6% from 2.2% prior.
  • The end of the meeting brought a pivot to risk-on, despite the decision being hawkish – although the narrative had been well-telegraphed in the lead-up to the meeting.
  • Oil markets regained some composure on USD weakness with Brent trading +1.2% higher this morning, just shy of $75/bbl. Today’s price action will move mostly in line with global risk developments and CBR expectations for Friday.
  • Yesterday’s lower Weekly CPI print may have some analysts leaning towards a +75bp hike, but the consensus remains for +100bp with the bank overtly concerned about expectations at multi-year highs and elevated passthrough via the FX channel.
  • Lower CPI into next year should also bolster the carry profile in RUB assets, adding to robust fundamentals. Intraday Sup1: 73.3616, Sup2: 72.8416, Res1: 73.7629, Res2: 73.9250
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.