Russian President Vladimir Putin Arrives In Tehran

Russian President Vladimir Putin has touched down in Tehran, Iran for a widely anticipated trilateral meeting with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Turkish President Recep Erdogan.

• The summit has been called to discuss the war in Syria within the Astana Process format and will likely determine whether Ankara commits to a military operation in Kurdish (YPG) controlled areas of northern Syria.
• A Turkish military operation would be a serious blow to NATO internal politics as the US are partnered with the YPG against the Islamic State, despite both Washington and Ankara designating YPG's parent, the PKK, a terrorist organisation.
• Raisi and Putin have both cautioned against a Turkish operation in Syria so there is a fear amongst analysists that Erdgoan might use leverage over NATO to pursue his goals in Syria.
• This fear was heighted yesterday when Erdogan told reporters that he still retains his right to wield his NATO veto over Finland and Sweden if they fail to comply with pledges made at the NATO summit in Madrid.
• Soner Cagaptay, Andrew J. Tabler at the Washington Institute write: "Erdogan may decide to leverage the Ukraine war. Specifically, he could offer to help Putin establish a “wheat corridor,” enabling grain exports from Russian-occupied Ukrainian ports and other Black Sea locales in exchange for Moscow’s assent to a Syria incursion."
• Erdogan considers himself a bridge between NATO and Russia so there is a small chance that a diplomatic breakthrough can be made to restart ceasefire negotiations, although Ukraine has rejected the prospect of talks while Russia occupies Ukrainian territory.