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Scotia on Upcoming Changes for Tomorrow's CPI Report

CANADA
  • Statcan has advised that the Jan CPI report will revise CPI-trimmed mean and CPI-weighted median measures back 7 years in time. This is part of normal revisions, but we have no real way of telling how the figures could change in direction, magnitude and timing.
  • It will also begin publishing index levels for CPI-trimmed mean and CPI-weighted median back to Dec’16. While their unpublished tabulation of 55 CPI components that is available immediately after release has made it possible for us to do our own calculations, this will now add some transparency to understanding of m/m pressures.
  • This will help BoC watchers evaluate pressures at the margin instead of just having the Y/Y readings even though those Y/Y readings are not spot calculations because they weight compounded monthly changes over the full year.
  • Caution: assuming the SA index levels are published on a spot monthly basis and not a weighted compounded index that evolves slowly over time, it is likely to be highly volatile and require smoothing.
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