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Reporting on key macro data at the time of release.
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- Selling pressure on HUF has remained elevated following the NBH decision to hike by 15bps this week.
- A 30bps hike could have eased the volatility on the long end of the interest rate curve and benefit the forint in the short term.
- HUF is one of the weakest FX performers among the EM world in recent weeks, down 5.5% against the USD and 4.1% against the Euro since the start of September.
- EURHUF keeps testing new highs and is currently trading at its highest level since April 2021. Next level to watch on the topside stands at 365.
- Key resistance on EURHUF remains at 370; policymakers have been carefully watching this resistance as a break above that level could definitely lead to higher volatility in both equity and bond markets as the uncertainty over the economic recovery will continue to rise (see chart).
- A break above that level may lead to a more aggressive hike at the next meeting (Nov. 16).