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Sellside Sees SA CPI More Benign Than Expected

SOUTH AFRICA
  • On yesterday’s inflation release, Goldman Sachs write that petrol inflation and alcohol/tobacco prices were the main drivers of the increase, with food inflation moderating somewhat and core rising but the composition somewhat more benign than they had expected. In response, they revise their forecast for average inflation in 2022 lower from 6.2% to 5.8% and now see the peak at slightly above 6%yoy in June/July as compared to above 6.5% previously.
  • JPMorgan write that headline inflation marginally surprised to the downside, but they retain their projections for inflation to average 6.3% in 2022 and 5.3% in 2023, well above the current policy rate of 4.25%. They see the SAR probably raising the policy rate to 5.50% by end-2022 (50bp in May and 25bp thereafter at every meeting); and see increased risk of a second 50bp in July. In part, the July call hinges on the risks of higher inflation expectations, USD/ZAR as well as dynamics in upcoming inflation reports.
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