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Sen. Brown Has Edge In Crucial Senate Race

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A Marist Poll has suggested that Ohio voters may split their ticket in November, voting for former President Trump and the top of the ballot and Democrat Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH) down-ballot. Split-ticket voting is increasingly rare, but will be crucial if Democrats are to retain control of the Senate. Along with Ohio, Democrats will likely need a split-ticket Senate win in Montana.

  • Marist: “In the contest for U.S. Senate, 50% of registered voters statewide, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, support Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown. 45% back Bernie Moreno, his Republican challenger.”
  • The Ohio Capital Journal warns: “…many pollsters, Marist among them, have had a tough time recently predicting outcomes in Ohio. In March’s Republican U.S. Senate primary, an apparent late surge for state Sen. Matt Dolan proved illusory, as Moreno didn’t just win the nomination, he cruised to a 17-point victory and even won a majority in a three-way race.”
  • Despite polling favouring Brown, data from Polymarket gives Brown and Moreno both a 50% implied probability of winning, likely pricing in Trump's strength in the state and the rarity of split-ticket voting in current partisan voting trends.

Figure 1: Ohio Presidential Contest

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A Marist Poll has suggested that Ohio voters may split their ticket in November, voting for former President Trump and the top of the ballot and Democrat Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH) down-ballot. Split-ticket voting is increasingly rare, but will be crucial if Democrats are to retain control of the Senate. Along with Ohio, Democrats will likely need a split-ticket Senate win in Montana.

  • Marist: “In the contest for U.S. Senate, 50% of registered voters statewide, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, support Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown. 45% back Bernie Moreno, his Republican challenger.”
  • The Ohio Capital Journal warns: “…many pollsters, Marist among them, have had a tough time recently predicting outcomes in Ohio. In March’s Republican U.S. Senate primary, an apparent late surge for state Sen. Matt Dolan proved illusory, as Moreno didn’t just win the nomination, he cruised to a 17-point victory and even won a majority in a three-way race.”
  • Despite polling favouring Brown, data from Polymarket gives Brown and Moreno both a 50% implied probability of winning, likely pricing in Trump's strength in the state and the rarity of split-ticket voting in current partisan voting trends.

Figure 1: Ohio Presidential Contest

Keep reading...Show less