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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US
Senator Tim Scott's (R-SC) announcement of an imminent 2024 presidential campaign launch has done little to affect the calculus of the Republican primary election.
- According to data from betting market Smarkets, support for Scott is limited despite a suggestion that Scott may emerge as the establishment Republican choice.
- Smarkets shows that former President Donald Trump remains the clear favourite with close to 60% implied probability of winning the primary, despite mounting legal troubles.
- Scott, who set up a presidential exploratory committee yesterday, has a huge USD$21 million campaign war chest at his disposal and may attract the support of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) who will be keen to prop up a candidate who isn’t affiliated with Trump’s ‘MAGA’ movement.
- Scott told CBS yesterday, when asked if he would support Trump if he won the primary, "I plan on being the nominee."
- Axios notes: “There's little sign that the GOP base — which overwhelmingly supports a Trump campaign fuelled by vengeance and victimhood — has any interest in Scott's sunny calls for unity.”
Figure 1: Republican Primary Election Result
Source: Smarkets
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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