Sheinbaum Maintains Dominant Position In Presidential Race

Claudia Sheinbaum, representing the ruling Morena Party of President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, remains the overwhelming favourite to win the June 2 Mexican presidential election - ahead of main opposition rival Xóchitl Gálvez - despite a moderate dip in the polls this month.

• Prediction market data from Polymarket shows that Sheinbaum is given an 89% implied probability of winning, down from close to 95% for much of the year. In the same period, Gálvez has jumped from a 4% implied probability to close to 15%.
• Polling aggregator Oraculus notes that Sheinbaum is polling at 56% in May. A strong lead over Gálvez who is polling at 34%, but slightly lower than the 61% Sheinbaum enjoyed earlier in the year.
• Sheinbaum's slight downtick may reflect widespread protests at severe drought conditions which have affected much of country. Reuters reports that Sheinbaum, "aims to overhaul water governance in the agriculture sector, the top user of the country's scarce supply, with a potential investment of 20 billion pesos ($1.2 billion) per year."
• AP notes: "40% of the country’s dams are below 20% of capacity, and another 40% are between 20 and 50% full. Mexico City has been forced to reduce water supplies because the reservoirs that feed the city are drying up."

Figure 1: Mexican Presidential Election Forecast, % Implied Probability