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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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The October survey also showed however that small business wage pressures took a turn higher - the net % expecting higher worker compensation returned to an all-time high (32%) vs a 16-month low (23%) in September.
- This has been a reasonably good forward indicator for the private Employment Cost Index which the Fed considers in assessing overall wage pressures - it suggests that ECI growth will remain stubbornly elevated into next year.
- Taken together, a plurality of small businesses see overall inflation as their biggest problem. Labor costs are also important, but the "quality of labor" problem (suggesting continued supply-side labor constraints) remains very elevated.
- Indeed, NFIB hiring plans remain robust despite waning business confidence and rising wage bills. That does not augur well for a dovish Fed "pivot".
Source: NFIB Small Business Survey; Bureau of Labor Statistics, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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