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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
SLOVAKIA
The left-wing populist Smer-SD of former PM Robert Fico maintains its lead in opinion polls ahead of the 30 September legislative elections. Under his previous gov'ts (2006-10, 2012-18), Fico governed as a broadly pro-EU social democrat, but during his period in opposition his rhetoric has sharpened towards Brussels and since 2022 towards Kyiv. This has raised concerns in both cities that Bratislava could become an obstacle to a united EU front.
- At an election rally Reuters reports Fico a stating that, "We are a peaceful country. We will not send a single round to Ukraine". If implemented this stance would mark an abrupt U-turn from Bratislava's current strong support for its neighbour.
- However, the fact that Smer-SD looks to fall short of a majority could temper this stance and force Fico to rein in his more populist policies. Polling shows that Smer-SD would need the support of a minimum of two other parties to form a majority. This would most likely be with the centre-left Hlas of former PM Peter Pellegrini and the nationalist SNS.
- Some observers have also highlighted the pragmatic governing style of Fico during his previous tenures. While he may lean populist during the campaign, he could shift back towards the centre should he regain the PM's office. This is particularly notable given that, as Reuters reports "...Brussels has leverage. On matters of the rule of law, it can withhold EU financial support for Slovakia, which badly needs it with the fiscal deficit forecast at 6.85% of GDP this year, the highest in the euro zone."
Chart 1. Slovakia General Election Opinion Polling, Seat Projections
Source: Median, Focus, AKO, SANEP, Polis Slovakia, Ipsos, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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