Snap Election In Northern Ireland Likely As Executive Deadline Looms

A snap election to the Northern Ireland assembly looks increasingly likely as the deadline to form a new power-sharing executive looms with little prospect of a resolution by the deadline of midnight tonight. There has been no devolved gov't in NI since the May 2022 election to the assembly, where the Irish republican Sinn Fein won a plurality of seats for the first time. 15 Dec seen as most likely date for any vote.

• Leader of the largest unionist party in the Stormont assembly, the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP)'s Sir Jeffrey Donaldson, said in a statement that "We don't believe that sufficient progress has been made to address the issues of concern [regarding the Northern Ireland protocol] to the people we represent'.
• Regarding Brexit, the Northern Ireland protocol remains the major sticking point. DUP will not accept it as it puts a customs border between NI and GB, in their view threatening NI's position as integral part of UK. Conservative gov't wary on the issue, doesn't want to lose Brexiteer support but also doesn't want to risk EU trade war. EU will not accept deviation from NIP as it would be seen as threat to single market. RoI won't accept deviation as it could be seen as threat to no hard border on the island of Ireland and Good Friday Agreement.
• Opinion polling shows that there has been little change in party support since the May vote. Sinn Fein are on course to retain the position of largest party (giving them the First Minister's position in any power-sharing executive) with the DUP second as the largest unionist parties. The cross-community Alliance Party in third is likely to ensure neither nationalist (pro united Ireland) nor Unionist (pro-UK) parties hold a majority.