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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
GERMANY
The polling gap between Germany's centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) and centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) has narrowed marginally over the past week and in the last few days has settled at around a 4% lead for the SPD as the contest enters its final few days.
- Kantar poll: SPD-S&D: 25% (-1), CDU/CSU-EPP: 21% (+1), GRÜNE-G/EFA: 16% (-1), AfD-ID: 11% (-1), FDP-RE: 11%, LINKE-LEFT: 7% (+1) +/- vs. 8-14 Sep. Fieldwork: 15-21 September 2021. Sample size: 1,433
- YouGov poll: SPD-S&D: 25%, CDU/CSU-EPP: 21% (+1), GRÜNE-G/EFA: 14% (-1), AfD-ID: 12% (+1), FDP-RE: 11% (+1), LINKE-LEFT: 7% (-1), FW-RE: 2% (-1). +/- vs. 9-14 Sep. Fieldwork: 16-22 September 2021. Sample size: 2,364
- The small increase in support for the CDU while the SPD levels hold steady (driven by minor dips for the Greens and the FDP) raise the possibility of an SPD-CDU 'grand coalition' gov't being a mathematical possibility following the election. However, this option is viewed as suboptimal by both parties as the SPD would prefer to work with parties of the centre/centre-left such as the Greens and FDP. Meanwhile, the CDU may not want to endure the embarrassment of having to reverse roles from the current governing situation and take the junior role.
- However, should it prove impossible to form a three-party gov't of either the left, centre-left, or centre-right, a re-formation of the current gov't under new leadership could prove the only option.
Chart 1. Germany Opinion Polling, % and 6-Poll Moving Average
Source: INSA, FGW, Civey, YouGov, Kantar, Forsa, Wahlkreisprognose, Allensbach, GMS, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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