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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
GERMANY
A third consecutive federal election opinion poll has put the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) in second place ahead of the environmentalist Greens in third in the race for the German chancellery. The spike in support for the SPD - only months ago seen as a likely candidate for a period in opposition - has seen the prospect of a two-party federal coalition reduce significantly.
- Forsa poll: CDU/CSU: 23%, SPD: 21% (+2), GRÜNE: 19% (-1), FDP: 12%, AfD: 10%, Die Linke: 6% (-1), +/- vs. 3-9 Aug, Fieldwork: 10-16 Aug. Sample size: 2,501
- INSA poll: CDU/CSU: 23%, SPD: 21% (+2), GRÜNE: 19% (-1), FDP: 12%, AfD: 10%, Die Linke: 6% (-1), +/- vs. 9-13 Aug, Fieldwork: 13-16 Aug. Sample size: 2,501
- The decline in support for both the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Greens, combined with the rise in support for the SPD and the pro-business liberal Free Democrats (FDP) retaining their multi-year high polling ratings, makes a three-party coalition emerging in the aftermath of the 26 September election a likely prospect.
Chart 1. Potential Post-Election Coalitions, Majority Coalitions on Top Row, Short of a Majority On Bottom Row, % of Seats in Bundestag
Source: Dawum.de
- At present the most significant policy changes would come in the advent of a 'traffic light' coalition (top right of chart) formed of the Greens, SPD, and FDP, as it would be the first German gov't since the 2005 election not to include the CDU.
- The biggest policy changes that could spark significant market shifts would come from a 'red-red-green' coalition of the SPD, Greens and the far-left Die Linke (bottom right of chart). At present this potential coalition sits just short of a majority in the Bundestag. However, a small uptick in support for any of the three parties at the expense of the CDU or FDP could tip it over the edge into majority territory. The inclusion of Die Linke (the successor party to the old East German Socialist Unity Party) would be a watershed moment in German politics.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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