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Speculation Increases Over Biden 2024 Presidential Bid

US

Betting market Smarkets has seen a significant shift in probability surrounding the Democrat nominee for the 2024 Presidential election.

  • Since early last month, President Biden has sunk from a 35% implied probability of taking the Democrat nomination to 23% before strengthening to 25% implied probability.
  • Vice President Kamala Harris has also seen a steady decline in probability due to a perceived poor performance as VP.
  • California Governor Gavin Newsom (D-CA) has continued to develop a strong foundation for a 2024 run and has firmed into a clear 3rd position with an implied probability of 13.5% of becoming the Democrat nominee although there will be questions of his electability on a national level due to his close association with Californian politics.
  • Newsom hasn't publicly declared an intention to run but has commissioned a series of attack adds targeting Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R-FL) who is widely expected to challenge former President Donald Trump for the GOP nomination. The ads have been taken as a signal that Newsom is looking to lay the groundwork for a White House bid.
  • Comes as this week more high-profile Democrats refuse to openly support President Biden for a 2024 bid.
  • Yesterday, two key House Democrats engaged in a New York primary battle both appeared to waver on the question.
    • House Judiciary Chair Jerry Nadler (D-NY) said it's, "Too early to say. Doesn’t serve the purpose of the Democratic Party to, to deal with that until after the midterms.”
    • House Oversight Chair Carolyn Maloney (D-NY) said, "I don’t believe he’s running for reelection,” although she later walked that comment back and ambiguouslty said she would, "absolutely support President Biden, if he decides to run for re-election."
    • Rep. Angie Craig (D-MN) said yesterday: "I would say we need new leaders in Washington up and down the ballot in the Democratic Party.”

Figure 1: Democrat nominee for 2024 Presidential election (Smarkets)

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Betting market Smarkets has seen a significant shift in probability surrounding the Democrat nominee for the 2024 Presidential election.

  • Since early last month, President Biden has sunk from a 35% implied probability of taking the Democrat nomination to 23% before strengthening to 25% implied probability.
  • Vice President Kamala Harris has also seen a steady decline in probability due to a perceived poor performance as VP.
  • California Governor Gavin Newsom (D-CA) has continued to develop a strong foundation for a 2024 run and has firmed into a clear 3rd position with an implied probability of 13.5% of becoming the Democrat nominee although there will be questions of his electability on a national level due to his close association with Californian politics.
  • Newsom hasn't publicly declared an intention to run but has commissioned a series of attack adds targeting Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R-FL) who is widely expected to challenge former President Donald Trump for the GOP nomination. The ads have been taken as a signal that Newsom is looking to lay the groundwork for a White House bid.
  • Comes as this week more high-profile Democrats refuse to openly support President Biden for a 2024 bid.
  • Yesterday, two key House Democrats engaged in a New York primary battle both appeared to waver on the question.
    • House Judiciary Chair Jerry Nadler (D-NY) said it's, "Too early to say. Doesn’t serve the purpose of the Democratic Party to, to deal with that until after the midterms.”
    • House Oversight Chair Carolyn Maloney (D-NY) said, "I don’t believe he’s running for reelection,” although she later walked that comment back and ambiguouslty said she would, "absolutely support President Biden, if he decides to run for re-election."
    • Rep. Angie Craig (D-MN) said yesterday: "I would say we need new leaders in Washington up and down the ballot in the Democratic Party.”

Figure 1: Democrat nominee for 2024 Presidential election (Smarkets)