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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US
Betting market Smarkets has seen a significant shift in probability surrounding the Democrat nominee for the 2024 Presidential election.
- Since early last month, President Biden has sunk from a 35% implied probability of taking the Democrat nomination to 23% before strengthening to 25% implied probability.
- Vice President Kamala Harris has also seen a steady decline in probability due to a perceived poor performance as VP.
- California Governor Gavin Newsom (D-CA) has continued to develop a strong foundation for a 2024 run and has firmed into a clear 3rd position with an implied probability of 13.5% of becoming the Democrat nominee although there will be questions of his electability on a national level due to his close association with Californian politics.
- Newsom hasn't publicly declared an intention to run but has commissioned a series of attack adds targeting Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R-FL) who is widely expected to challenge former President Donald Trump for the GOP nomination. The ads have been taken as a signal that Newsom is looking to lay the groundwork for a White House bid.
- Comes as this week more high-profile Democrats refuse to openly support President Biden for a 2024 bid.
- Yesterday, two key House Democrats engaged in a New York primary battle both appeared to waver on the question.
- House Judiciary Chair Jerry Nadler (D-NY) said it's, "Too early to say. Doesn’t serve the purpose of the Democratic Party to, to deal with that until after the midterms.”
- House Oversight Chair Carolyn Maloney (D-NY) said, "I don’t believe he’s running for reelection,” although she later walked that comment back and ambiguouslty said she would, "absolutely support President Biden, if he decides to run for re-election."
- Rep. Angie Craig (D-MN) said yesterday: "I would say we need new leaders in Washington up and down the ballot in the Democratic Party.”
Figure 1: Democrat nominee for 2024 Presidential election (Smarkets)
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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