Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Governor of the state of Carinthia, Peter Kaiser, has called for the resumption of a 'grand coalition' between the centre-right People's Party (ÖVP) and the centre-left Social Democrats (SPÖ) following federal elections taking place by the autumn. Kaiser, who hails from the SPÖ stated that “I believe that an SPÖ-ÖVP coalition would be good...I also say: Not at any price. Compromise sometimes offers the opportunity to move Austria forward." The prospect of a 'grand coalition' is seen as one of the few potential election outcomes that could keep the right-wing nationalist Freedom Party (FPÖ) - currently topping opinion polling - out of power.
- 'Grand coalitions' between the two volkspartei are not uncommon in Austria. From 1987-2000 and 2007-2017, the SPÖ headed such a gov't, while the ÖVP led grand coalition gov'ts from 1945-1966.
- The post-election composition of the National Council could make gov't formation without the FPÖ a difficult prospect. Should minor parties such as the far-left Communist Party (KPÖ) and the satirical Beer Party (BIER) cross the 4% nationwide electoral threshold (the KPÖ has polled as high as 7% and the Beer Party at 6%) then it would dilute the number of seats won by the main parties, making a two-party coalition a more difficult prospect.
- This would risk a lengthy coalition formation process post-election and gov't paralysis, or a potentially unstable three-party coalition that struggles to reach agreement on policy-making.
Chart 1. Federal Election Opinion Polling, % and 6-Poll Moving Average
Source: INSA, OGM, Market-Lazarsfeld, Unique Research, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.