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Summary – February 14

LATAM
  • Colombia will publish monthly data for December today, with IP, retail sales and trade all set for release at 1500GMT(1000ET). Argentina CPI data for January will also cross, with another large double-digit m/m gain on the cards and the y/y rate moving above 250%. In Brazil, markets will reopen after the break for carnival. In the US, the Fed’s Goolsbee and Barr are set to speak and their comments will be watched carefully as the first FOMC representatives to appear after yesterday's firmer-than-expected CPI.
  • USD: the stronger-than-expected US inflation data yesterday prompted a surge higher for the greenback. As Fed rate cut expectations continue to be pushed back, the USD index rose ~0.75% to a fresh near-three month high.
  • Global News:
    • US (MNI) – while some analysts questioned January seasonality potentially explaining at least of the surprise strength in US CPI yesterday, they mostly keep to their calls for a first Fed cut in May or June, with a couple already looking for July. Nomura formally pushed their view for a first rate cut out from May to June, with one less cut for the year, with now a FOMC SEP consistent 75bp for 2024.
    • JAPAN – Japan’s top currency chief sought to put a floor under the yen with a barrage of warnings after US inflation data spurred a jump in the dollar overnight. “Recent moves by the yen have been pretty rapid,” vice finance minister for international affairs Masato Kanda told reporters Wednesday. Kanda said authorities are on call 24 hours a day, 365 days a year and are always ready to take appropriate steps as needed.
    • RUSSIA/UKRAINE (MNI) - Reuters claiming that the Kremlin has refuted a 13 Feb report from the newswire claiming that according to its Russian sources President Putin’s suggestion of a ceasefire in Ukraine had been rejected by the US. Kremlin spox Dmitri Peskov, when asked about the report, stated that "No. It's not true". The report came at the same time as a major political showdown looms in the US Congress over a massive Ukraine funding package.
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