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Summary – February 15

LATAM
  • The BCB will publish its weekly Focus survey this morning, while in Chile the minutes for the recent BCCh monetary policy meeting (when it cut by 100bp) will be released. Later, Colombia Q4 GDP and December economic activity will cross, while Peru will also publish December economic activity and January labour market data. In the US, the January retail sales release takes the focus, alongside weekly jobless claims data as well as import/export price indices. The Fed’s Waller will also speak on the reserve status of the US dollar.
  • Global News:
    • US (MNI) – Fed Governor Michael Barr said on Wednesday it’s too early to call a soft landing in the US as there is still much work to do to bring inflation down further, but there are signs there will be continued, albeit bumpy, disinflation. Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said the US could be at risk of a recession if China experiences a major downturn, emphasising that policymakers remain in a position to cut interest rates as inflation slows.
    • EU – The EU Commission forecasts a sharper fall in inflation and a slower rebound in economic activity across the euro zone in its latest Winter Forecast. Headline HICP consumer price inflation would decelerate to 2.7% in 2024 and to 2.2% in 2025 in the euro area. It also downgraded its forecast for 2024 euro zone growth to 0.8% from 1.2% and to 1.5% from 1.6% in 2025.
    • JAPAN – Japan unexpectedly slipped into a recession at the end of last year, losing its title as the world’s third-biggest economy to Germany. The economy contracted 0.1% q/q, or 0.4% annualised, over Q4 2023, the second straight quarterly decline. Nonetheless, a senior Cabinet Office official said the nation is at the final corner before declaring victory over deflation, a comment that suggests the government is largely aligned with the BoJ.

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