Summary of Analyst Views (1/2)

Summary of Analyst Views

• 22 of the 24 sellside reviews that we have read through changed their base case BOE view. Only Goldman Sachs and UniCredit have maintained their forecasts.
• Timing of next hike (out of 24 analysts):
  • 19 analysts expects March (79%)
  • 5 analysts expect May (21%)
• Bank Rate at end 2022 (out of 24 analysts): Only Goldman Sachs and Nomura expect four hikes this year as their base case. Other analysts are almost evenly split between 0.75% and 1.00%.
  • 2 analysts look for 1.50% (8%) – none previously (0%)
  • 9 analysts look for 1.25% (38%) – 2 previously (8%)
  • 11 analysts look for 1.00% (46%) – 9.5 previously (40%)
  • 2 analysts looks for 0.75% (8%) – 12.5 previously (52%)
  • Note that one analyst previously looked for either 0.75% or 1.00% (hence the 0.5s)
• Bank Rate at end 2023 (out of 19 analysts): Again, fairly even split of expectations, ranging from 0.75% to 1.75%.
  • 1 analyst expects 2.00% (5%)
  • 5 analysts expect 1.75% (26%)
  • 6 analysts expect 1.50% (32%)
  • 3 analysts expect 1.25% (16%)
  • 3 analysts expect 1.00% (16%)
  • 1 analysts expect 0.75% (5%)