'Taiwan Policy Act' In Front Of Senate Committee Amid Soaring Tensions

A potentially significant Senate Committee meeting taking place today could be the next flashpoint between the US and China.

• The Senate Foreign Relations committee will meet at 14:30 ET 19:30 BST to consider S.4428, the Taiwan Policy Act 2022 amidst a raft of other business. Full text: https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/senate-bill/4428/text
• The meeting will not be livestreamed but some additional details are available here: https://www.foreign.senate.gov/hearings/business-m...
• Responsible Statecraft writes that the bill, penned by Senate Foreign Relations chair Bob Menendez (D-NJ), would ‘gut’ the One China policy, the foundation of Sino-US relations.
  • Michael Swaine of the Quincy Institute: “The document plays with words to seem as if no fundamentals have changed, but One China is in effect gutted. The One China policy has led to strong limits being placed on political, diplomatic, and military contacts with [Taiwan]. This bill, if passed and implemented by the administration, would add greatly to the existing erosion of such limits.”
• The Washington Post says the bill “could give the White House significant diplomatic heartburn,” and reports that the White House did not respond to an email asking for the administration’s position on the the bill.
• The Taiwan Policy Act would designate Taiwan a “major non-NATO ally,” promote Taiwan’s de facto embassy from the “Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office” to the “Taiwan Representative Office,” and the director of the corresponding American Institute in Taipei would become a “representative,” and be subject to Senate confirmation. A big step towards officially ambassadorship.
• The bill would edit the wording of the Taiwan Relations Act from merely providing Taiwan with arms "of a defensive character” to “arms conducive to deterring acts of aggression by the People’s Liberation Army.”
  • It is unlikely that Beijing will see this as an insignificant change.
• RS writes that, “several experts [said] that they are most concerned about the section of the legislation dealing with sanctions."
• The Act would compel the imposition of sanctions on Chinese officials, including the president, if Beijing escalates tensions with the effect of “undermining, overthrowing, or dismantling governing institutions in Taiwan.”
  • An ambiguous phrase which has scope for misinterpretation or selective application.
• There is no guarantee that the bill will reach the Senate floor but it is likely that Beijing will consider an attempt by lawmakers on the Foreign Relations Committee to reframe US-Taiwan relations during a period of tensions highly provocative.