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TD - Non-Oil Improvements Unlikely To Translate To Core Inflation Pressures

CANADA
  • TD see headline CPI rising 0.2% M/M in Aug (cons 0.2) with the major driver being gasoline prices rising another 5% M/M.
  • The headline year-ago rate should jump 0.5pps to 3.8% Y/Y from a combination of base effects and that gasoline increase.
  • “Seasonal headwinds should hold food prices to a minor increase, and we also look for another muted performance across core goods as households pare back discretionary spending.”
  • “However, these improvements are unlikely to translate into softer core inflation pressures with CPI-trim/median expected to edge 0.05pp higher to 3.7% y/y (+0.1pp for CPI-trim). This would leave 3m rates of core inflation to persist in their recent (3.5-4.0%) range, although our forecast would see the ex. food/energy measure edge lower by 0.1pp to 3.3% y/y.”
  • The BoC “will still want to see more evidence of fading price pressures to keep rates unchanged into 2024.”
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