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TECHS: CEEMEA FX Price Signal Summary: USDTRY Bounces Off The 50-Day EMA

EMERGING MARKETS
  • EURHUF gains are considered corrective. The short-term outlook however still appears bullish and recent gains suggest scope for a stronger corrective bounce. Price has cleared the 20-day EMA and this exposes resistance at the 50-day EMA that intersects at 353.37. Key support and the bear trigger is at 345.14, Jun 10 low.
  • The EURPLN needle still points south from a trend perspective, however the contract has entered a corrective phase. Recent gains have resulted in a break of both the 20- and 50-day EMAs suggesting scope for a stronger short-term recovery. Further upside would open 4.5500 and 4.5580, 50% of the Mar 29 - Jun 7 downleg. Key support is at 4.4360, Jun 7 low.
  • USDZAR is off recent lows and correcting but remains in a downtrend.
    • Recent weakness confirmed a resumption of the downtrend signalling scope for a move towards 13.2681 next, 1.500 Fibonacci projection of the Apr - Jun - Aug 2020 price swing.
    • The pair has probed the 20-day EMA at 13.7714.
    • A stronger correction would open 14.00 with the 50-day EMA at 14.0578.
  • USDTRY traded sharply lower last week. The pair tested the 50-day EMA at 8.3159 Friday and Monday and has since recovered. The EMA is considered a key support area and the bounce from it, is a bullish development. Key short-term support has been defined at 8.2860, Jun 11 low. The focus is on 8.8008, Jun 2 high and the bull trigger.
  • USDRUB last week cleared 72.5385, Mar 16 low reinforcing the current bear cycle. Moving average studies remain in a bear mode and this clearly highlights the fact that for now, the path of least resistance remains down. The recent break lower signals potential for weakness towards 71.0838, 76.4% retracement of the Jun - Oct 2020 rally. Resistance is at 73.0035, the 20-day EMA.
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