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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
UK
Three UK by-elections taking place tomorrow will test a resurgent Labour Party and Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s attempt to project Conservative stability after the collapse of two conservative governments last year.
- Polls suggest that former Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency, and a second seat in the Selby and Ainsty are likely to flip to Labour. Loss of Selby - an new archetypal safe Conservative seat - would be a significant political event ahead of the general election.
- A third by-election in Somerton and Frome is expected to see a strong showing from the Liberal Democrats.
- Another two by-elections in Conservative seats are expected in the Autumn so a poor performance would apply more pressure on Sunak although most analysts believe another change in leadership unlikely before the general election, due by January 2025.
- In favour of a Conservative overperformance: A recent decision by Tata Group to establish a Jaguar/Land Rover battery plant a short distance from the Somerton seat and this week's CPTPP trade bloc approval, a notable post-Brexit win for Sunak's government.
- Results are expected by early Friday morning.
Figure 1: By-Elections Scheduled and Expected
Source: Bloomberg
Figure 2: By-Election Polling
Source: JL Partners, Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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