Tokyoites To Vote In Metropolitan Elections, LDP Seen As Likely Winner

Tokyoites will elect members of the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly on Sunday and the outcome will be scrutinised as an early gauge of public sentiment ahead of the next general election, due to take place on or before Oct 22.

• The Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly is composed of 127 members elected every four years in 42 constituencies by single non-transferrable vote.
• The largest party in the Assembly is Tokyoites First, founded by Governor Koike on the back of her successful race for governorship in 2016. The party controls 46 seats, but is expected to lose ground on Sunday.
• The recent hospitalisation of Governor Koike, a popular regional leader, has provided a headwind for the party on the final stretch of the campaign. Furthermore, Koike has largely toed the central gov't's line on the Tokyo Olympics, in dissonance with Tokyoites First, who have long called for a more scaled-down format of the event.
• Given the proximity of the Games, the event has dominated the electoral campaign, alongside the local Covid-19 situation. Tokyo's Covid-19 cases are on the rise, despite adopting quasi-emergency measures.
• The main focus will fall on the result of the Liberal Democratic Party. A victory in the capital would bring some reprieve to PM Suga, as he struggles to consolidate his leadership amid a slide in his personal approval rating, public dissatisfaction with his handling of Covid-19 outbreak and three by-election defeats.
• Polling suggests that the LDP are set to win the largest share of the vote and might take control of the metropolitan legislature along with Komeito, their allies in the National Diet. Nonetheless, the outcome remains uncertain, as recent polls saw a large share of undecided respondents, which in a Kyodo survey conducted last weekend exceeded 50%.