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Treasuries Revert To Selling Off, Powell Later

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys revert to selling off after yesterday’s rally amidst broader risk-on moves with equity futures firming and the dollar weakening, marginally lagging moves seen in Europe following hawkish ECB commentary.
  • Fed hike expectations largely keep to yesterday’s gains and a result see a largely parallel shift in the curve rather than a continuation of yesterday’s sizeable flattening, maintaining 2s10s at 25bps having been ~40bps after Easter.
  • 2YY +4.2bps at 2.617%, 5YY +4.3bps at 2.905%, 10YY +3.9bps at 2.871% and 30YY +3.4bps at 2.906%, with the curve inverted between 7Y and 10Y tenors before rising again thereafter.
  • TYM2 is down 10 ticks but remains well within yesterday’s range with average volumes. Initial support is yesterday’s early low of 118-19+ whilst resistance remains 120-00+ (Apr 18 high).
  • Fedspeak: Powell speaks at 1100ET and 1300ET with the latter likely the main event as part of an IMF panel with ECB’s Lagarde.
  • Data: Philly Fed and usual weekly jobless claims at 0830ET
  • Bond issuance: US Tsy $20B 5Y TIPS auction (91282CEJ6) at 1300ET
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $35B 4W, $30B 8W bill auctions at 1130ET
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