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Trend-Defining Triggers Either Side Of USDCAD Spot, Expiry Biases Lower

CANADA
  • USDCAD has lifted 80 pips off lows today for ~1.3535 at typing, but has only pushed back to the middle of yesterday’s FOMC-aided wide range.
  • The earlier low marked a return to Mar 14 levels prior to the US PPI beat.
  • More concerted moves in either direction can help set the trend here, with a bull trigger seen at 1.3614 (Mar 19 high) and bear trigger at 1.3420 (Mar 8 low).
  • In the near-term, tomorrow’s heavy option expiry can help bias moves lower with $0.8bn at 1.3500, $1.2bn at 1.3480 and $1.1bn at 1.3370. The NY cut comes after CAD retail sales.
  • On crosses, the day’s USD reversal of post-FOMC weakness helps CAD outperform most other peers.
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