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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US
Former President Donald Trump has extended his advantage over President Biden, according to the 2024 Presidential Election Model of The Economist.
- The Economist model forecasts Trump a 75% implied probability of winning the electoral college in November. Biden is given a 25% implied probability of winning. The forecast is a notable up-tick in Trump's advantage since the model was first published last week.
- The 538 model has the race as a tossup, a sign that the models' divergent methodologies are likely to throw up differing projections until closer to Election Day when variables reduce.
- The election models are discussed at length in last week's edition of the MNI US Elections Weekly.
Figure 1: 2024 Presidential Election Model
Source: The Economist
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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