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Trump Extends Advantage In The Economist's Presidential Election Forecast

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Former President Donald Trump has extended his advantage over President Biden, according to the 2024 Presidential Election Model of The Economist.

  • The Economist model forecasts Trump a 75% implied probability of winning the electoral college in November. Biden is given a 25% implied probability of winning. The forecast is a notable up-tick in Trump's advantage since the model was first published last week.
  • The 538 model has the race as a tossup, a sign that the models' divergent methodologies are likely to throw up differing projections until closer to Election Day when variables reduce.
  • The election models are discussed at length in last week's edition of the MNI US Elections Weekly.

Figure 1: 2024 Presidential Election Model

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Former President Donald Trump has extended his advantage over President Biden, according to the 2024 Presidential Election Model of The Economist.

  • The Economist model forecasts Trump a 75% implied probability of winning the electoral college in November. Biden is given a 25% implied probability of winning. The forecast is a notable up-tick in Trump's advantage since the model was first published last week.
  • The 538 model has the race as a tossup, a sign that the models' divergent methodologies are likely to throw up differing projections until closer to Election Day when variables reduce.
  • The election models are discussed at length in last week's edition of the MNI US Elections Weekly.

Figure 1: 2024 Presidential Election Model

Keep reading...Show less