June 18, 2024 18:11 GMT
Trump Extends Advantage In The Economist's Presidential Election Forecast
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Former President Donald Trump has extended his advantage over President Biden, according to the 2024 Presidential Election Model of The Economist.
- The Economist model forecasts Trump a 75% implied probability of winning the electoral college in November. Biden is given a 25% implied probability of winning. The forecast is a notable up-tick in Trump's advantage since the model was first published last week.
- The 538 model has the race as a tossup, a sign that the models' divergent methodologies are likely to throw up differing projections until closer to Election Day when variables reduce.
- The election models are discussed at length in last week's edition of the MNI US Elections Weekly.
Figure 1: 2024 Presidential Election Model
Source: The Economist
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