US
A new 2024 presdiential election model launched this week by Decision Desk HQ and the Hill currently projects that Donald Trump has a 58% probability of winning the Presidency in November.
- The model projects that, based on current data inputs, Trump would win 282 Electoral College votes to Biden's 256. (To win the presidency, a candidate must win 270 of the 538 available electoral votes.)
- The DDHQ model supports recent polling which gives Trump a moderate lead in a number of swing states which Biden won in 2020. Notably, Trump is slightly ahead in both Wisconsin (58%-42%) and Pennsyvania (56%-44%) with Biden holding a razor thin (51%-49%) advantage in the third Rust Belt swing state, Michigan. If Biden is to win in November he will likely need to win at least two of these Rust Belt states.
- In the Sun Belt, Trump has a moderate lead in Georgia (63%-37%) and Arizona (59%-31%) with Nevada (51%-49%) leaning to Trump.
- The DDHQ model closely mirrors betting market data. Smarkets currently gives Trump a 54% implied probability on winning after a surge in May.
Figure 1: Electoral College Projection
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