Trump Pitted Against Moderate GOP In Ohio Senate Primary

Congressional primary elections are taking place today in Ohio and Illinois which may provide a check on former President Donald Trump's influence over the GOP for the first time since the midterm elections when Trump-backed candidates were seen as contributing to a GOP underperformance.

• In Ohio, Trump-endorsed businessman Bernie Moreno is running against more establishment-friendly state Senator Matt Dolan - backed by Governor Mike DeWine (R-OH).
• The winner of the primary will run against vulnerable Democrat incumbent Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH). It is a seat which Democrats must retain if they are to keep control of the Senate in 2025.
• Note: Ohio was considered a swing state before a surge in a support for Trump pushed the state to the red side of the ledger meaning it should be a strong pickup opportunity for Trump-backed Senate candidates.
• However, the GOP primary has parallels with the 2022 Senate race which was won by Trump-backed JD Vance (R-OH) which, despite the win, Split Ticket notes Vance, "was one of the top WAR underperformers of 2022 (D+5.2)."
• Split Ticket: "Despite benefiting from a more conservative national environment, Vance underran Trump’s 2020 margins. His unimpressive performance, especially compared to that of Governor Mike DeWine, suggests that he may have hurt Republican congressional candidates downballot."
• Based on the 2022 result, a Morena victory would likely benefit Democrats and make Brown, who has won the seat three times, favourite in November.