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Truss 2nd Ahead Of Sunak In Stakes For Next Con Leader, 1st Hustings Tonight

UK

Foreign Secretary Liz Truss is now in second place in the betting market stakes for next Conservative party leader, overtaking former Chancellor Rishi Sunak. According to data from Smarkets, Truss has a 27.0% implied probability of becoming Conservative leader, with Sunak on 21.3%.

  • Trade Minister Penny Mordaunt maintains her lead in the betting market stakes with a 46.3% implied probability of being the eventual victor.
  • Sunak's slip to third comes in spite of him topping the ballot in the second round of the Conservative leadership contest held yesterday. Sunak won the support of 101 MPs, while Mordaunt was second with 83, and Truss third on 60. Former Equalities Minister Kemi Badenoch came in fourth with 49 MPs, and centrist Chair of the Foreign Affairs Select Committee Tom Tugendhat was fifth with 32 backers. Hardline brexiteer Attorney General Suella Braverman was eliminated from the contest with the support of 27 MPs. She has since lent her support to Truss' campaign.
  • The first televised leadership hustings takes place tonight, broadcast on Channel 4 at 1900BST (1400ET, 2000CET). Given that Sunak, and to some extent Truss are the only two candidates with sizeable name and personal recognition among the public, these events could be crucial for the other hopefuls in boosting their profile. The second televised debate is set for Sunday 17 July on ITV at 1900BST.
  • The third round of the election takes place on Monday 18 July, with the result due at 2000BST (1500ET, 2100CET). The fourth round is then held on Tuesday 19 July, with the result at 1500BST (1000ET, 1600CET), before the fifth and final round deciding which two candidates go through to the members vote on Wednesday 20 July, with the result at 1600BST (1100ET, 1700CET).

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