Tsys Yields Open Slightly Lower, Ahead Of A Busy Day For US Data

TYH4 is currently trading at 110-03+, up +03 from New York closing levels. Treasury futures have opened slightly higher than the US close, with very little volume going through so far. Expect volumes to remain low and ranges to stay tight ahead of US data later today.

• Mar'24, 10Y futures have opened steadily in Asia, trading in a tight range post-US CPI and ahead of a busy data calendar later today. Key levels to watch include initial support at 109-17 (50.0% of the Oct 19 - Dec 27 bull phase). A break below here could open up new yearly lows and a test of 109-05+ (lows of Nov 28). To the upside, initial resistance lies at 110-16 (the lows from Feb 9th), while a break above opens up a move to 111-06 (20-day EMA).
• Cash yields recovered slightly from Tuesday's bear flattening move to trade 2-8bps lower during the US session. As cash trading begins in Asia, the theme continues with the curve 1bp lower in yield terms. The 2Y yield is -1.1bp lower at 4.567%, while the 10Y yield is 1bp lower at 4.248%.
• Looking ahead, Thursday brings a heavy data calendar with weekly Claims, Retail Sales, Imp/Exp$, IP/Cap-U, TIC Flows. Fed speak includes Fed Gov Waller on the US$ international role at 13:15 ET, and Atlanta Fed Bostic on monetary policy (text, Q&A) later in the evening at 19:00 ET.