Tuesday saw NAB note that "Victoria,......>

AUSTRALIA: Tuesday saw NAB note that "Victoria, Australia's 2nd largest state

has experienced a considerable uptick in new coronavirus cases by Australian

standards over the past two weeks and lockdowns of 10 specific Melbourne

postcodes have just been announced, encompassing more than 300,000 people. Virus

hospitalisations rates though still remain low at just 9. The rest of Australia

also continues to record very low or zero new case counts. Victoria's quick

re-imposition of targeted lockdowns and the ramping up of testing should mean

the virus spread will come back under control. Stabilization could well take a

further 5-14 days given that is the mean incubation period for the virus. It is

conceivable that after 4-6 weeks Victoria could resume easing measures and the

suburban lockdowns are for a duration of 4 weeks. In the short-run the virus

pickup and renewed restrictions will see Victoria continuing to lag the recovery

seen in the other states as reflected in high frequency data such as Apple

mobility indicators and Open Table restaurant bookings. Some interstate borders

may also remain closed for longer, impeding a recovery in domestic tourism

across Australia."