MNI BRIEF: Mandate No Cure For Discount Window Stigma-NY Fed

MNI BRIEF: US April Core PCE YoY Rate Lowest In 3 Years

CANADA Q1 GDP ANNUALIZED +1.7% VS EXPECTED +2.4%

MNI BRIEF: China Utility Prices Should Be Reasonable

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY98 Bln Via OMO Fri; Rate Unchanged

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1088 Fri; -2.14% Y/Y

Consumption Contributes Positively To In Line Q/Q GDP Print

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: Germany, Netherlands, France Due Monday

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: BoE APF on Monday

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

MNI: Growth Drag From Net Zero Carbon Goal Can Be Offset-OECD

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

UBS on NBH and 1W Depo Rate

HUNGARY
  • Following today's decision, the one-week deposit rate is going to be hiked by 30bps to 6.15% from 5.85% currently.
  • Assuming that the NBH were to stick to the 100bps pace of policy rate hikes in April/May (i.e. before the next Inflation Report), then the policy rate could quickly rise to 6.4%, while the one-week deposit rate would rise to 6.75% if the 30bps pace were to be maintained.
  • This leaves June as the earliest possible date for the rate harmonization.
  • If that were to happen in June, then the two rates would settle at around 7.0% (policy rate hiked by 60bps, 1-week depo by 25bps).
  • However, if the NBH were to pursue tightening also for July, then analysts can imagine the MPC raising the policy rate by two times 50bps to 7.40% (June/July) and the one-week deposit rate by 35bps and 30bps.
  • Both of these scenarios would imply a higher terminal rate than UBS previous forecast of 6.5%.
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.