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Free AccessUK Analysis: Aug IoP, Construction Up; IoP Could Lift Q3 GDP>
-UK August IoP +0.2% m/m; +1.6% y/y; Manufacturing +0.4% m/m; +2.8% y/y
-UK August Construction +0.6% m/m; +3.5% y/y
By Laurie Laird and Jamie Satchithanantham
London (MNI) - Industrial output and construction both rose in
August, leaving production set to contribute positively to gross
domestic product in the third quarter, despite a downturn in car
production in August.
Total production rose by 0.2% in August, matching the MNI median
forecast. On an annual basis, production increased by 1.6%, exceeding
the MNI median of a 0.9% rise.
Output for the month of July was revised to show a 0.3% increase,
better than to the 0.2% rise reported last month. That means production
could fall by as much as 2.5% in September, and still leave output
unchanged between the second and third quarters.
Industrial output has not fallen by such a large amount since
plunging by 3.5% in September of 2012, suggesting that production could
exert a positive influence on gross domestic production in the third
quarter. Production comprises 14.0% of GDP.
The manufacturing sector accounted for much of the improvement in
August production, rising by 0.4% between July and August, registering a
2.8% annual gain, topping the MNI median forecast of a 0.2% monthly gain
and a 1.9% annual rise.
A 2.7% rise in the production of metals products accounted for much
of the strength, adding 0.22 percentage points to total output. That
countered a 2.6% fall in the output of transport equipment, which
subtracted 0.29 percentage points from the total. A sharp fall in car
production after a 7.6% surge in transport equipment output in July
accounted for much of the weakness, according to a National Statistics
official.
Meanwhile, construction output rose by 0.6% in August, above the
MNI median forecast of a 0.1% gain. Over the year to August, output
increased by 3.5%, also topping the MNI median expectation of a 0.4%
rise.
Over the month of July, the construction sector rose by 0.6%,
partially reversing the downwardly-revised 1.0% decline reported last
month.
That means construction must rise by 1.9% for third quarter output
to match the outturn of the second three months of the year, which would
represent the biggest rise since December of last year. Construction
accounts for 6.1% of total output.
-London bureau: 44 (0) 203 865 3812; email: ukeditorial@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: M$B$$$,MABDS$]
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.