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Underlying CPI Run Rates Still Stuck Around 3-3.5% Annualized

CANADA DATA
  • The broadly in line Y/Y readings come with underlying run rates still somewhat sticky at 3-3.5% annualized which continues to support Macklem’s point that it can get to 3% pretty quickly but will struggle thereafter.
  • Specifically, the average of the median/trim dipped a tenth to 3.4% but in doing so has only just pushed back through a rate first hit in Oct’22.
  • CPI ex food & energy is slightly more encouraging with a 0.3pp decline back to 3.0% annualized, nudging below January’s 3.1% for the joint softest pace since Jul’21.

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