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US Data: Highlights of MNI Survey of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   
upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   
weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 
median forecasts. 
Retail and Food Sales for February (percent change)                      
 Monday, April 1 at 8:30 a.m. ET                         Actual:
               Median         Range                  Feb19  Jan19  Dec18
 Retail Sales  +0.3%     -0.4% to +0.5%                 --  +0.2%  -1.6%
 Ex-Mtr Veh    +0.4%     -0.2% to +0.6%                 --  +0.9%  -2.1%
     Comments: Retail sales are forecast to rise by 0.3% in February 
after a 0.2% rebound in January. Not seasonally adjusted industry motor 
vehicle sales were roughly steady in February, while AAA reported that 
gasoline prices rose modestly in mid-February from one month earlier. 
Retail sales are expected to rise by 0.4% excluding motor vehicles after 
a 0.9% rebound in January. 
Business Inventories for January (percent change)                      
 Monday, April 1 at 10:00 a.m. ET                        Actual:
              Median           Range                 Jan19  Dec18  Nov18
 Inventories  +0.4%       -0.3% to +0.5%                --  +0.6%   Flat
     Comments: Business inventories are expected to rise by 0.4% in 
January. Factory inventories were already reported as up 0.5% in the 
month, while wholesale inventories jumped 1.2%. There was no advance 
retail inventories report for January. As for sales, factory shipments 
fell by 0.4% and wholesale sales were up 0.5%, while the advance 
estimate for retail trade sales was a modest 0.2% gain, so the data 
suggest business sales were up 0.1% in the month pending any revision to 
retail trade sales. 
Construction Spending for February (percent change)                        
 Monday, April 1 at 10:00 a.m. ET                        Actual:
               Median         Range                  Feb19  Jan19  Dec18
 Construction  +0.1%     -0.8% to +1.0%                 --  +1.3%  -0.8%
     Comments: The value of construction spending is expected to rise by 
0.1% in February after a sharp 1.3% gain in January, which was led by 
public construction. Housing starts fell by 8.7% in the month, 
suggesting a further residential construction decline. 
ISM Manufacturing Index for March                                       
 Monday, April 1 at 10:00 a.m. ET                        Actual:
               Median         Range                  Mar19  Feb19  Jan19
 Mfg ISM        54.6      53.3 to 56.0                  --   54.2   56.6
     Comments: The ISM manufacturing index is expected to tick up to a 
reading of 54.6 in March after a February dip. Regional conditions data 
have been mixed, while the flash Markit manufacturing index fell to 
52.5. 
Durable Goods Orders for February (percent change)
 Tuesday, April 2 at 8:30 a.m. ET                        Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Feb19  Jan19  Dec18 
 New Orders    -1.6%     -3.1% to +0.3%                 --  +0.3%  +1.3% 
 Ex-Transport  Flat      -2.2% to +0.5%                 --  -0.2%  +0.3%
     Comments: Durable goods orders are expected to fall by 1.6% in 
February after rising by 0.3% in January. Boeing orders fell sharply in 
February, which should allow transportation orders to pull back. Durable 
goods orders excluding transportation are expected to hold steady after 
a 0.2% decline in January. 
Domestic Motor Vehicle Sales for March (mln units, saar)                  
 Tuesday, April 2                                        Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Mar19  Feb19  Jan19
 Sales Ex GM,Ford                                       --   7.1m   7.1m
     Comments: The SAAR for domestic-made vehicle sales excluding GM and 
Ford is expected to slip modesty in March after holding roughly steady 
in February. Seasonal factors will be a large subtraction from 
unadjusted claims after adding to them in February. 
ISM Non-manufacturing Index for March
 Wednesday, April 3 at 10:00 a.m. ET                     Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Mar19  Feb19  Jan19
 ISM NMI        58.0      57.0 to 59.7                  --   59.7   56.7
     Comments: The nonmanufacturing ISM reading is expected to fall to a 
reading of 58.0 in March after rising to 59.7 in February. The 
Philadelphia Fed nonmanufacturing index surged to 21.7, the Kansas City 
services reading declined to -2, and the Dallas Services index fell to 
-4.4 and the flash Markit Services index fell to 54.8. 
Weekly Jobless Claims for March 30 week                                
 Thursday, April 4 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:       
               Median         Range                  Mar30  Mar23  Mar16
 Weekly Claims  216k      210k to 220k                  --   211k   216k
     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to rise 
by 4,000 to 215,000 in the April 5 week after a decrease of 5,000 in the 
previous week. The four-week moving average would fall by 750 this week 
as the 218,000 level in the March 2 rolls out of the calculation. 
Nonfarm Payrolls for March (change in thousands)                     
 Friday, April 5 at 8:30 a.m. ET                         Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Mar19  Feb19  Jan19
 Payrolls      +170k     +145k to +243k                 --   +20k  +311k
 Private Jobs  +165k     +140k to +246k                 --   +25k  +308k
 Jobless Rate   3.8%      3.7% to  3.9%                 --   3.8%   4.0%
 Hrly Earnings +0.3%     +0.2% to +0.3%                 --  +0.4%  +0.1%
 Avg Wkly Hrs   34.5      34.4 to 34.5                  --   34.4   34.5
     Comments: Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 170,000 in March 
after a much weaker-than-expected 20,000 rise in February. The 
unemployment rate is expected to stay at 3.8%. Hourly earnings are 
forecast to rise by 0.3%, while the average workweek is expected to 
rebound slightly to 34.5 hours after falling to 34.4 hours in February. 
Consumer Credit for February (dollar change, billions)                   
 Friday, April 5 at 3:00 p.m. ET                         Actual:        
              Median        Range                  Feb19   Jan19   Dec18
 Cons Cred     17.0     13.0 to 18.0                  -- +$17.0b +$15.4b
     Comments: Consumer credit is expected to grow by $17.0 billion at 
an annual rate in February, continuing a string of solid gains.
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email: harrison.clarke@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$U$$$]

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