Free Trial

(H2) Heading South


(H2) Maintains A Bearish Tone

Real-time Actionable Insight

Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.

Free Access
Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 20:06 GMT Dec 29/15:06 EST Dec 29
     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for   
upcoming U.S. economic indicators provided by participants in the MNI   
weekly survey. The comment section presents the key elements behind the 
median forecasts.   
Domestic Motor Vehicle Sales for December (mln units, saar)             
 Wednesday, January 3                                    Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Dec17  Nov17  Oct17
 Dom Sales      13.4m      13.2m to 13.6m               --  13.3m  13.8m
     Comments: Domestic-made vehicle sales are expected to tick up      
slightly to a 13.4 million annual rate in December after falling to a   
13.3 million annual rate in November. Seasonal adjustment factors will  
subtract from unadjusted sales in December after adding to them in      
ISM Manufacturing Index for December                                    
 Wednesday, January 3 at 10:00 a.m. ET                   Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Dec17  Nov17  Oct17
 Mfg ISM         58.2      56.5 to 60.3                 --   58.2   58.7
     Comments: The ISM manufacturing index is expected to hold steady at
58.2 in December, down from the levels seen in September and October,   
but still indicating strength. Most of the regional conditions data     
suggest growth accelerated, but there was some regional declines that   
provide some downside risk.                                             
Construction Spending for November (percent change)                     
 Wednesday, January 3 at 10:00 a.m. ET                   Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Nov17  Oct17  Sep17
 Construction   +0.7%      +0.5% to +1.0%               --  +1.4%  +0.3%
     Comments: Construction spending is expected to rise by 0.7% in     
November. Housing starts rose further in the month, suggesting private  
residential building could post a solid gain.                           
Weekly Jobless Claims for December 30 week                              
 Thursday, January 4 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:        
                 Median         Range                Dec30  Dec23  Dec16
 Weekly Claims     240k      240k to 240k               --   245k   245k
     Comments: The level of initial jobless claims is expected to fall  
by 5,000 to 240,000 in the December 30 Christmas week after holding     
steady at 245,000 in the previous week. The four-week moving average    
rose by 1,750 to 237,750. The four-week moving average would rise by    
another 1,000 in the coming week as a 236,000 level in the December 2   
week drops out of the calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct 
and there are no revisions.                                             
Nonfarm Payrolls for December (change in thousands)                     
 Friday, January 5 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:        
               Median         Range                  Dec17  Nov17  Oct17
 Payrolls       +190k      +170k to +210k               --  +228k  +244k
 Private Job    +185k      +165k to +205k               --  +221k  +247k
 Jobless Rate    4.1%       4.0% to 4.1%                --   4.1%   4.1%
 Hrly Earnings  +0.3%      +0.2% to +0.3%               --  +0.2%  -0.1%
 Avg Wkly Hrs    34.5       34.4 to 34.5                --   34.5   34.4
     Comments: Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 190,000 in      
December after an above expectation reading in November. The            
unemployment rate is expected to stay at 4.1%, still very low by        
historical standards. Hourly earnings are forecast to rise 0.3% after a 
0.2% gain, while the average workweek is expected to stay at 34.5 hours 
after climbing to that point in November.                               
Trade in Goods and Services for November (deficit, billion $)           
 Friday, January 5 at 8:30 a.m. ET                       Actual:        
              Median           Range               Nov17   Oct17   Sep17
 Trade Gap   -$48.3b      -$49.0b to -$48.1b          -- -$48.7b -$44.9b
     Comments: The international trade gap is expected to narrow        
modestly to $48.3 billion in November after widening sharply to $48.7   
billion in October. The advance estimate of the Census goods trade gap  
widened to $69.7 billion, with exports up 3.0% and imports up 2.7%, so  
the forecast for the headline number suggests analysts expect a wider   
services surplus.                                                       
ISM Non-manufacturing Index for December                                
 Friday, January 5 at 10:00 a.m. ET                      Actual:        
              Median        Range                    Dec17  Nov17  Oct17
 ISM NMI        57.8      57.0 to 58.3                  --   57.4   60.1
     Comments: The ISM nonmanufacturing index is expected to rebound to 
a reading of 57.8 in December after a decline in 57.4 in November. The  
Philadelphia nonmanufacturing index rose to 25.3, while the flash Markit
Services index fell to 52.4.                                            
Factory Orders for November (percent change)                            
 Friday, January 5 at 10:00 a.m. ET                      Actual:        
              Median             Range               Nov17  Oct17  Sep17
 New Orders    +1.0%       +0.6% to +1.4%               --  -0.1%  +1.7%
 Ex Transport   --            -- to  --                 --  +0.8%  +1.1%
     Comments: Factory orders are expected to rise by 1.0% in November. 
Durable goods orders rose 1.3% in the month on a jump in aircraft       
orders, while nondurables orders are expected to post another modest    
gain. Factory orders are expected to be softer excluding the            
transportation component. Durable orders excluding transportation fell  
0.1% in the advance estimate.                                           
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email:
Sign up now for free access to this content.

Please enter your details below and select your areas of interest.