US Data: Recap of Economic Indicators

             Oct-1  Sep-1  Aug-1

                 9      9      9  Jul-19  Jun-19  May-19  Apr-19  Mar-19  Feb-19

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

UI

Claims/4wk

avg

             214/2  204/2  211/2  208/21  219/21  228/22  197/20  224/22  230/22

wk 1            15     13     13       9       5       0       7       0       5

                    208/2  221/2  216/21  222/21  212/22  193/20  216/22  231/22

wk 2                   06     14       9       8       5       1       0       9

                    219/2  211/2  207/21  217/21  212/22  230/20  212/21  213/22

wk 3                   13     15       3       9       1       6       7       9

                    220/2  216/2  217/21  229/22  218/21  230/21  204/21  224/22

wk 4                   10     15       2       2       7       2       4       5

                    210/2  219/2  211/21  222/22                          218/22

wk 5                   14     17       3       3                               1

Nonfarm

Payrolls            +136k  +130k   +164k   +193k    +62k   +216k   +153k    +56k

Private

Payrolls            +114k   +96k   +148k   +179k    +81k   +195k   +153k    +46k

Mfg Payroll           -2k    +3k    +16k    +12k     +2k     +3k     -3k     +8k

Unemploymen

t                    3.5%   3.7%    3.7%    3.7%    3.6%    3.6%    3.8%    3.8%

Avg Wkly

Hours                34.4   34.4    34.3    34.4    34.4    34.4    34.5    34.4

Avg Hours -

Mfg                  40.5   40.5    40.4    40.7    40.6    40.6    40.7    40.7

Aggr Hours

Index                0.0%  +0.4%   -0.2%   +0.2%   +0.1%   -0.2%   +0.5%   -0.3%

Aggr Hrs

Index - Mfg          0.0%  +0.5%   -0.6%   +0.3%   +0.1%   -0.2%   -0.1%   -0.1%

Avg Hourly

Earnings            +0.4%  +0.4%   +0.3%   +0.3%   +0.3%   +0.1%   +0.2%   +0.4%

Final

Demand PPI          -0.3%  +0.1%   +0.2%   +0.1%   +0.1%   +0.2%   +0.6%   +0.1%

excl food &

energy              -0.3%  +0.3%   -0.1%   +0.3%   +0.2%   +0.1%   +0.3%   +0.1%

excl food,

energy,

trade                 0.0  +0.4%   -0.1%    Flat   +0.4%   +0.4%    Flat   +0.1%

CPI                 +0.1%  +0.1%   +0.3%   +0.1%   +0.1%   +0.3%   +0.4%   +0.2%

excl food &

energy              +0.2%  +0.3%   +0.3%   +0.3%   +0.1%   +0.1%   +0.1%   +0.1%

Import

Prices              +0.2%  -0.5%   +0.2%   -0.9%    Flat   +0.2%   +0.6%   +1.0%

non-petro

import

prices                       0.0    Flat   -0.4%   -0.3%   -0.5%    Flat   +0.2%

ISM Mfg

Prices Pd

Index                49.7   46.0    45.1    47.9    53.2    50.0    54.3    49.4

PCE Price

Index M/M                   0.0%   +0.2%   +0.1%   +0.1%   +0.3%   +0.2%   +0.1%

PCE Price

Index Y/Y                   1.4%   +1.4%   +1.4%   +1.4%   +1.5%   +1.4%   +1.3%

Core PCE

Price Index

M/M                         0.1%   +0.2%   +0.2%   +0.2%   +0.2%   +0.1%    Flat

Core PCE

Price Index

Y/Y                         1.8%   +1.6%   +1.6%   +1.5%   +1.5%   +1.5%   +1.6%

Treasury                          -$200.  -$119.          -$207.  +$160.  -$146.

Budget (bn)                            3       7   -$8.5       8       3       9

Consumer                   +$17.

Credit (bn)                    9  +$23.3  +$13.8  +$17.1  +$17.5  +$11.0  +$15.5

CB Consumer

Confidence          125.1  135.1   135.8   124.3   131.3   129.2   124.2   131.4

Consumer

Sentiment                   89.8    98.4    98.2   100.0    97.2    98.5    93.8

Retail

Sales               -0.3%   +0.4   +0.8%   +0.4%   +0.5%   +0.4%   +1.8%   -0.5%

excl motor

vehicles                     0.0   +1.0%   +0.3%   +0.5%   +0.6%   +1.4%   -0.6%

Personal

Income                     +0.4%   +0.1%   +0.4%   +0.4%   +0.4%   +0.4%   +0.6%

Personal

Spending                   +0.1%   +0.6%   +0.3%   +0.5%   +0.6%   +1.0%   -0.1%

ISM Mfg

Index                47.8   49.1    51.2    51.7    52.1    52.8    55.3    54.2

ISM Nonmfg

NMI                         56.4    53.7    55.1    56.9    55.5    56.1    59.7

MNI Chicago

Report               47.1   50.4    44.4    49.7    54.2    52.6    58.7    64.7

Phila Fed

Mfg Index            12.0   16.8    21.8     0.3    16.6     8.5    13.7    -4.1

Phila Fed

Nonmfg

Index         12.6    9.5    7.5    21.4     8.2    17.3    21.0    21.7    10.0

Empire

State Index    4.0    2.0    4.8     4.3    -8.6    17.8    10.1     3.7     8.8

KC Fed Mfg

Index           -3     -2     -6      -1       0       4       5      10       1

Richmond

Fed Mfg

Index                  -9      1     -12       2       7       9      10      14

Dallas Fed

Mfg Index             1.5    2.7    -6.3   -12.1    -5.3     2.0     6.9    11.6

Markit Mfg

Index                51.5   50.3    50.4    50.6    50.5    52.4    52.4    53.0

Markit

Services

Index                50.9   50.7    53.0    51.5    50.9    53.0    55.3    56.0

Ind

Production          -0.4%  +0.8%   -0.1%   +0.1%   +0.2%   -0.6%   +0.1%   -0.5%

Capacity

Util                77.5%  77.9%   77.5%   77.8%   77.8%   77.7%   78.4%   78.5%

Factory

Orders                     -0.1%    +1.4   +0.6%   -1.3%   -1.2%   +1.3%   -1.0%

Factory

Orders ex

transport                           +0.3   +0.1%   +0.0%   +0.2%   +0.1%   +0.3%

Durables            -1.1%  +0.2%   +2.0%   +1.8%   -2.3%   -2.8%   +1.7%   -2.6%

Durables ex

transport           -0.3%  +0.5%   -0.4%   +0.8%   +0.4%   -0.2%   -0.5%   -0.3%

Nondurables                        +0.8%   -0.7%   -0.3%   +0.4%   +0.9%   +0.7%

Mfg

Shipments                           -0.2    +0.1   +0.1%   -0.6%   +0.2%   +0.3%

Business

Inventories           0.0   +0.4    +0.4    Flat   +0.3%   +0.5%    Flat   +0.3%

Factory                             +0.2   +0.1%   +0.2%   +0.2%   +0.4%   +0.3%

Retail               -0.1    0.8           -0.3%   +0.3%   +0.6%   -0.3%   +0.3%

Wholesale                   +0.2    +0.2    Flat   +0.4%   +0.8%    Flat   +0.4%

Housing

Starts (mn)         1.256  1.386   1.191   1.241   1.264   1.270   1.199   1.149

Building

Permits

(mn)                1.387  1.425   1.336   1.232   1.299   1.290   1.288   1.287

NAHB Index             68     66      65      64      66      63      62      62

New Home

Sales (k)             701    706     635     646     604     658     705     669

Existing

Homes (mn)           5.38   5.49    5.42    5.29    5.36    5.21    5.21    5.48

Pending

Home Sales

Index               108.7  107.1   105.6   108.3   105.4   104.3   105.9   101.9

Construct

Spending                     0.1     0.1    -0.7   -0.5%   +0.9%   +0.1%   +1.0%

Private

Residential                  0.9     0.6    -0.5    Flat   +0.9%   -0.8%   -0.7%

Trade

Balance                    -$54.

(bn)                           9  -$54.0  -$55.2  -$55.3  -$51.2  -$51.9  -$50.0

Exports                    $207.

(bn)                           9  $207.4  $206.3  $210.7  $206.4  $211.4  $209.6

Imports                    $262.

(bn)                           8  $261.4  $261.5  $266.0  $257.6  $263.3  $259.7

Goods Only,                -$74.

BOP (bn)                       4  -$72.5  -$75.1  -$75.9  -$71.7  -$72.7  -$70.8

Leading

Index                      +0.0%   +0.5%   -0.1%   -0.1%   +0.1%   +0.3%   +0.1%

                                           Q2-19                   Q1-19

GDP

(chain-wt)                                 +2.0%                   +3.1%

Final Sales                                +3.0%                   +2.6%

Chain

prices                                     +2.4%                   +1.1%

Current-dol

lar                                        +4.6%                   +3.9%

                                           Q2-19                   Q1-19

Nonfarm

Productivit

y                                          +2.3%                   +3.5%

Nonfarm

Unit Labor

Costs                                      +2.6%                   +5.5%

                                           Q2-19                   Q1-19

ECI (q/q)                                  +0.6%                   +0.7%

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202 371 2121; email: alexandra.kelley@marketnews.com

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