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USD/Asia Pairs Down Sharply, Although Limited Follow Through For USD/CNH

ASIA FX

USD/Asia pairs are mostly down sharply, amid a sharp USD pullback, although follow on CNH gains have been absent. The won once again has been a strong performer. THB is also up over 2%. Indian IP is still due, while CPI figures for India will be in focus on Monday. The meeting between China President Xi and US President Biden on Monday, ahead of the G20 leaders meeting in Bali, will also be of interest.

  • USD/CNH is back around 7.1650, up from late NY levels near 7.1500. The USD/CNY fix came out stronger than expected, but we suspect this isn't start of a trend to bias USD/CNY levels higher. Onshore covid cases continue to climb (now above 10k), but equity sentiment is strongly positive across the board.
  • 1 month USD/KRW is down a further 1.55% from NY closing levels to sub 1328. We are now back to mid-August lows. The won is benefiting from a strong beta with respect to global equity sentiment and from the local authorities calling on domestic investors to increase FX hedging on offshore assets to reduce pressure on the won from capital outflows.
  • Spot USD/IDR is 1.15% below yesterday's closing levels, although found some support sub 15500. The IDR is playing some catch up with overnight moves in the USD and the sharp pull back in US real yields following the CPI miss. Commodity price dynamics are still presenting a less favorable backdrop for IDR though (see this link for more details).
  • Spot USD/THB has tumbled in a catch-up reaction to below-forecast U.S. CPI data, with the 100-DMA giving way in the process. The risk-sensitive baht is poised to finish the week as the second-best performer in emerging Asia, with only the South Korean won faring better. The pair was last at 36.02.
  • USD/MYR is back to a 4.6400 handle. A break below MYR4.6324, where that moving average intersects today, would support the case for a deeper bearish reversal. Bulls look for a rebound towards Nov 4 high of MYR4.7495. Q3 GDP was stronger than expected, coming in at +14.2% y/y, versus +12.5% expected.
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USD/Asia pairs are mostly down sharply, amid a sharp USD pullback, although follow on CNH gains have been absent. The won once again has been a strong performer. THB is also up over 2%. Indian IP is still due, while CPI figures for India will be in focus on Monday. The meeting between China President Xi and US President Biden on Monday, ahead of the G20 leaders meeting in Bali, will also be of interest.

  • USD/CNH is back around 7.1650, up from late NY levels near 7.1500. The USD/CNY fix came out stronger than expected, but we suspect this isn't start of a trend to bias USD/CNY levels higher. Onshore covid cases continue to climb (now above 10k), but equity sentiment is strongly positive across the board.
  • 1 month USD/KRW is down a further 1.55% from NY closing levels to sub 1328. We are now back to mid-August lows. The won is benefiting from a strong beta with respect to global equity sentiment and from the local authorities calling on domestic investors to increase FX hedging on offshore assets to reduce pressure on the won from capital outflows.
  • Spot USD/IDR is 1.15% below yesterday's closing levels, although found some support sub 15500. The IDR is playing some catch up with overnight moves in the USD and the sharp pull back in US real yields following the CPI miss. Commodity price dynamics are still presenting a less favorable backdrop for IDR though (see this link for more details).
  • Spot USD/THB has tumbled in a catch-up reaction to below-forecast U.S. CPI data, with the 100-DMA giving way in the process. The risk-sensitive baht is poised to finish the week as the second-best performer in emerging Asia, with only the South Korean won faring better. The pair was last at 36.02.
  • USD/MYR is back to a 4.6400 handle. A break below MYR4.6324, where that moving average intersects today, would support the case for a deeper bearish reversal. Bulls look for a rebound towards Nov 4 high of MYR4.7495. Q3 GDP was stronger than expected, coming in at +14.2% y/y, versus +12.5% expected.