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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
ASIA FX
USD/JPY could be volatile post the BoJ outcome, with very elevated implied vol levels hinting as much. This could spill over to USD/Asia pairs, albeit to varying degrees, if current correlations/betas hold.
- The chart below plots the correlations and betas between daily changes in USD/JPY and major USD/Asia pairs for the past month. this is based off daily changes in FX rates. Outside of USD/THB, correlations and betas are positive across the board.
- USD/IDR has the highest correlation at present, just under 70%. The caveat is that correlations tend to bump around, for instance this time last week we were under 30% for this metric. Still, correlations between USD/IDR and USD/JPY averaged 37.50% for the past year, one of the higher results for the region.
- Elsewhere correlations are generally higher for NEA currencies and SGD. They sit lower for SEA currencies, except for IDR. This broadly fits with trade competitiveness trends being stronger between NEA and Japan.
- Betas are generally around the 0.20-0.30 region for most pairs.
- THB bucks these broader trends, which may owe to greater emphasis on the China re-opening theme in recent months, which has driven strong baht outperformance and left the currency potentially less susceptible to spill over effects.
Fig 1: USD/Asia Correlations & Betas With USD/JPY (Past Month)
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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