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USD Index Steadies After Spell of Weakness, NFP On Tap

FOREX
  • Markets trade rangebound ahead of the NFP release, consolidating after sharp volatility in equity markets after the European close on Thursday, as a ratchet higher in Middle-East tensions undermined risk sentiment. The surge in oil prices continues to provide a tailwind for commodity-tied currencies, tipping NOK to the top of the G10 pile, keeping EUR/NOK within range of first support at yesterday's lows of 11.5840.
  • The USD Index is more stable after three consecutive sessions of declines, leaving the currency poised for post-jobs report volatility. 103.922 marks the first downside level, the 50-dma, which provided firm support during Thursday trade, so could mark an important level ahead of the weekend.
  • CHF is the weakest performer on an intraday basis, however EUR/CHF remains below yesterday's cycle high and bull trigger of 0.9849. Clearance here opens the cross to the highest levels since May last year and 0.9880.
  • Focus turns to the March nonfarm payrolls report, at which markets expect 214k jobs added this month, along with a tick lower in the unemployment rate by 0.1ppts. Earnings are expected to slow further, with the Y/Y AHE seen at 4.1% vs. 4.3% previously. The Canadian jobs release is also due, at which markets expected a +25k net change in employment.
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