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USD/INR Bounces Off Simple 50-Day MA, NEER Still Pushing Higher Though

INR

USD/INR is slightly firmer since the open, in line with broader USD gains. The pair last near 81.57. Yesterday's low was close to the simple 50-day MA, (81.27). Still, the INR NEER (J.P. Morgan index) is back to early October levels. CNH/INR is up off recent lows (last 11.23), but still looks to be maintaining a downtrend.

  • The data calendar swings back into gear tomorrow with IP figures for September due (+2% forecast), but there will be more focus next Monday on CPI and wholesale inflation prints. A step back in both measures is expected (CPI to 6.70% y/y, from 7.41% prior).
  • Onshore equities are lower today, but the flow from offshore investors continues, last +$1.44bn for November to date, already comfortably above October's total of just over $1bn.
  • Onshore bond yields are lower, the 10yr last at 7.374%, but the simple 50 (7.334%) and 100-day (7.353%) MAs are close by, and we haven't been able to see downside traction through these support levels in recent months.
  • Reuters reports that government spending could lower for the first time in 3 years (see this link link for more details).
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