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USD/INR Rebounds, Equities Can't Break Higher

INR

Spot USD/INR has tracked a 79.50/60 range so far today, around +0.50% up on yesterday's closing levels. The open was lower than implied by NDF levels, with the 1month NDF USD/INR slightly lower at 79.75/80 versus the NY close.

  • Onshore equities are lower, but outperforming other plays in the region. The NIFTY can't break higher at this stage, still struggling to gain foothold above 18000 (last 17910).
  • The 10yr bond yield is higher at 7.11%, unable to gain traction below 7.07% for now.
  • Broader USD strength has clearly seen some catch up from the rupee as well, with focus now on whether we get back close to 80.00. Yesterday’s lows came in just ahead of 79.00.
  • Interestingly, the Chief Economic Advisor at the Ministry of Finance stated yesterday the rupee can take care of itself and the authorities aren't defending the rupee, but ensuring a smooth function of the market.
  • Coming up is India wholesale prices for August. The market looks for a 13% y/y print, versus a 13.93% y/y print in July.
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