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USD/RUB Takes Out Key Support & 100dma, Eyes More Downside

RUSSIA
  • USD/RUB opens slightly higher on the back of some early $ buying to retrace a portion of the post-FOMC weakness.
  • The cross closed decisively below the 74.50 handle in yesterday's session, clearing the lateral consolidation range and 100dma - possibly opening up the next downleg.
  • Oil markets trade slightly firmer as Citi analyst note global oil inventories may be closer to rebalancing than OPEC may think, given most of the overhang has been absorbed by markets.
  • Risk-on is likely to help support RUB sentiment in conjunction with a hawkish CBR and continued unwind in geopolitical risk premia (5Y CDS -1.83% w/w), despite comments from Borrell regarding a unified EU in tackling Russian regional aggression.
  • Moves from Kiev to block progress on the Donbass ceasefire are somewhat concerning and will need to be monitored, but tensions have simmered substantially.
  • Intraday Sup1: 74.1981, Sup2: 73.9706, Res1: 73.6370, Res2: 74.8347
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com

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