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USDCAD Clears Support In Pullback Continuation

CANADA
  • Further dollar weakness plus oil strength on the day helps push USDCAD to new session lows of 1.2909 (-0.9%), clearing support at 1.2936 (Jul 8 high) as it continues the swings of last week.
  • It opens the 50-day EMA of 1.2875 in a further extension of what’s seen as a corrective pullback from a technical perspective, after which lies a key support at 1.2819 (Jun 28 low).
  • Risks could crudely be seen as two-sided with the loonie only fractionally above its ten-year average from a REER perspective and CAD positioning relatively neutral for CFTC net specs, although TD eyed cross-asset fair value for USDCAD north of 1.32 after last week’s BoC decision.

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