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USDJPY Grinds Higher Throughout US Trade, Central Bank Meetings Ahead

JPY
  • Despite the initial downward pressure from weaker-than-expected European data on Monday, US yields have rebounded, grinding higher throughout the US session. USDJPY has followed closely in tow, recovering from early session lows of 140.76 and now consolidating around 141.50.
  • Overall, recent gains and the solid price action on Friday have resulted in a move through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs, strengthening a short-term bullish condition. Attention is on 142.08, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement for the early July downleg. A break would open 143.22, the 76.4% retracement point. On the downside, key support has been defined at 137.25, the Jul 14 low.
  • Obvious focus is on the July FOMC decision where the Fed will hike by 25bp and maintain its tightening bias. Chair Powell is likely to suggest that a follow-up hike is possible at the next meeting in September, but will emphasize that no decision has yet been made, and will depend on the substantial inflation and jobs data in the interim. Friday also marks the July BOJ meeting where expectations for any adjustments have been firmly tempered following the most recent BOJ rhetoric.
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